Keynote Speech by Mr. Cui Liru at the International Relations Sub-session

 

Mutual trust between China and the U.S. has dropped to its lowest point since the two countries established diplomatic ties. Since the beginning of this year, a series of actions taken by the U.S. have shown that Washington’s anti-China hawks are determined to steer the two countries towards a “new Cold War”. However, this relationship, which has entered a new historical period, is a complex one and what the hawks intend to do is not an inevitable trend in the evolvement of China-U.S. relations.

 

Since China was identified as the “number one challenger” to the U.S., strategic competition has become the theme of the China policy of the U.S. The term “challenger” mainly means that China challenges the international dominance of the U.S. in, among others, economic, financial, military, political, scientific and technological fields. Therefore, a general consensus has been reached in the U.S. that it must adjust its China policy and take strong counter-balancing measures. However, in Washington, there are still major differences within the diplomatic and strategic circles over the deeper political implications of the so-called China Challenge as well as the U.S. policy towards China. Currently, it mainly can be divided into two schools of realistic thinking and hardline thinking.

 

The realists view the challenge posed by China’s rise from the perspective of a historical pattern of major country competition, despite China’s characteristics. They believe that strategic competition has become the dominant theme of China-U.S. relations, but strategic rivals are not the same as enemies, and many issues are still uncertain. Managing this complex relationship between the two major countries has its worldwide economic, political and security implications. In addition to the necessary containment of China’s rise, the U.S. should also consider the need for cooperation between the two countries in order to address common challenges. The Obama administration largely followed this pattern in its later period.

 

The hardliners believe that China has set a goal of replacing the U.S. hegemony and accordingly launched a comprehensive campaign encompassing economic, military, scientific and technological, diplomatic, ideological, and public relations actions. In their view, China-U.S. relations are quite hostile, and the U.S. is even faced with imminent dangers, requiring an immediate and comprehensive policy to contain China, with “decoupling” being the most prominent one at present. Therefore, right-wing forces have raised the ideological banner of anti-Communism in order to exert a greater political impact on domestic public opinion.

 

Although there are major differences that cannot be ignored between Trump and the hawks, hardline forces and their ideas have come to dominate China policy more and more over the past three years, and Washington’s policy towards China has also become increasingly hostile. Under such circumstances, China is bound to fight back accordingly. Criticizing each other verbally has become the norm between the two countries, and the political trust needed for a stable relationship has almost disappeared. Given the U.S. government’s failure to contain its domestic COVID-19 pandemic, stigmatizing China as a way of shirking its own responsibility, and given the tendency nowadays to use any means necessary to fulfil the political needs of the presidential campaign, many believe that China-U.S. relations are confronted with unprecedented dangers. China cannot afford to be unprepared for all unexpected events.

 

It is likely that we have to face such a dilemma for a long time to come: China-U.S. relations are in the midst of a structural shift and remain unbalanced. Strategic competition in this situation requires sound management to avoid the situation from getting out of hand or even developing into open confrontation. After all, neither side wants to see this happen. The dynamics of China-U.S. relations, dominated by strategic competition, are increasingly suffering from political hostility, making the minimum level of trust and cooperation required for such management difficult. Thus, the only practical approach is to manage risks at the lowest level, i.e., the two sides reaching a consensus on the severity of the consequences of confrontation based on historical experience. But this would be a passive, reactive and fragile management method, depending to a large extent on the quality of the relevant personnel on both sides during incidents, which equals to leaving the two countries’ relations entirely to luck.

 

Is there any chance of changing this dangerous situation? Based on previous analysis, the political evolution of the U.S. in the short term will significantly influence its China policy while the overall pattern of China-U.S. relations remains unchanged. Close attention will be paid to the election results in 50-odd days, especially to the appointments and policies of the next U.S. administration, but it should also be noted that its consequent changes in China policy will not be fundamental.

 

Fundamentally, the truly effective management of strategic competition between China and the U.S. depends on whether both parties can rationally perceive reality, properly manage “strategic competition” under the new circumstances, and establish a correspondingly stable relationship framework. The essence of this framework is to re-establish a strategic balance between the two sides. There are two ways to achieve this goal. One is for policymakers on both sides to be guided by positive perceptions and policies, which is undoubtedly China’s choice. On the U.S. side, the U.S. realists’ perception of China’s rise and strategic competition mentioned above involves this idea. The other is to be pushed by the development of the situation, which is the negative consequence of deteriorating relations, or the results of important unforeseen events. This will force the two sides back to a future-oriented positive track of constructive dialogue and balance rebuilding.